(History repeating itself once again.)īut more prosperous times typically lie ahead in the latter half of the cycle.Īlso Read: Recessionary risks in 2023: Two charts pointing towards recession The second and third quarters of midterm years are historically quite weak. Those who know their market history will find it somewhat unsurprising that the start of this year was rough. And with an aggressive Fed, high inflation, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the weakness in stocks was amplified. In 2022, the market entered the weak spot of the cycle. Hirsch discovered that wars, recessions, and bear markets tend to start in the first two years of a president’s term. Congressional elections take place – and with them, they bring the potential to shift the political backdrop.Īlso Read: Fed rate hike in November may set the tone for the stock market In fact, it’s the weakest of all four years. In the first two years after an election, the second year tends to be the weakest. With the numbers produced from the expected vote share, the model uses a normal distribution to produce the probability of a candidate receiving a larger vote share than their opposing candidate.Įlection Forecasting Models aren’t perfect, but they can help paint a picture of what the results may look like in November.US Fed hikes rate by 25 bps in May: The road ahead for the markets The combination of the data determined the expected vote share for each candidate. When these data were not applicable, they were not used. The primary results were given the least weight. The approval ratings were given the second least weight. The ISLs were given the second most weight. The polling averages were given the most weight. The ISL, approval rating, primary results, and polling averages all were given weights to determine the expected vote share for each candidate. Polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, in combination with a likely voter weight and allocation of undecided voters, were used to determine the expected vote share for each candidate. The primary election results of 2022 were used to determine the expected vote share for every political party. Senator up for reelection, in combination with an incumbency bounce, likely voter weight, and allocation of undecided voters were used to determine the expected vote share for every incumbent and challenger. Morning Consults’ approval ratings of every U.S. House district map to determine the ISL for each U.S. The model incorporated FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean and Daily Kos’s 2020 presidential vote on the 2022 U.S. The ISL was created for each state and used past election results to determine what the expected vote share in each state would be in a perfectly equal national political environment. To develop an expected vote share for each candidate the model incorporates, the inherent state lean (ISL), approval rating, primary results, and polling averages are calculated. The 2022 Election Forecast Model takes into account polls on individual races, national sentiment towards each party, history of past midterm elections, and more to estimate the vote share of candidates in a race and the probability that they will win. This AllSides Interactive is a partnership between AllSides and Dodge Matthews. View latest news, polls, and examples of media bias in AllSides’ 2022 Midterm Elections live blog and view a map of key races to watch on our Election Topic page.
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